Stop Putin Before It Spreads.
Date: 4th March 2022
By: Purpose Without Borders Group.
This is a summary about why citizens in Western democracies must be demanding direct military action from their governments to Stop Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The argument presented is that this is the least risky option, and that half measures is the road to escalation.
Putin’s regime has been fighting a hybrid war against Ukraine for decades, which ramped up after the annexation of Crimea and Donbass in 2014. The hybrid war aim was to prevent Ukraine moving towards democracy and Europe. This hybrid war has failed, and Putin ordered an invasion now because the Ukrainian economy, political system and military were becoming stronger, he had the green light from his huge ally the Xi Jinping regime, and the time after Covid pandemic was right.
Ukraine is going to be difficult to occupy and install a pro Putin puppet regime. There are half a million Ukrainian partisans ready to fight. The Putin regime will inevitably turn to mass murder and destruction. The architect of the invasion is Putin’s closest aide and heir, the Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu. If the Ukraine invasion succeeds then so does Shoygu, as happened after Putin’s campaign of mass murder and destruction in Chechnya in the 1990s.
Putin and Shoygu are not going to stop after creating a country of terror in Ukraine. They will know that their regime will be facing growing opposition from the West. Secondary sanctions will have to be applied to Xi’s Chinese regime as he throws a lifeline to the Russian economy. Putin and Shoygu will be forced to escalate aggression to attempt to overwhelm Western opposition. Time will be short with the Russian economy running out of money.
Putin’s next adventure via Belarus will most probably be the Nato Baltic States, using significant Russian minorities as cover. Nato will not be able to defend with conventional arms, these countries formed by relatively narrow strips of land bordered by the sea.
Putin knows that crossing a Nato border will break the alliance’s prestige. Nato will have to fight Russian troops by its Article 5 commitments, and will lose in this situation. Nato and Russian aircraft will be shooting each other down. Nato troops will be fighting directly with Russian troops. Avoiding this in Ukraine will only lead to an emboldened Putin committing aggression in the Baltic States which makes direct Nato and Russian conflict inevitable.
The risk of the West allowing Putin to crush Ukraine is higher not lower than confronting him in Ukraine Now!
What is to be done now? This article gives some important urgent initial actions = “America can still stop Putin from swallowing all of Ukraine” from 24/2/2022 https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/595679-america-can-still-stop-putin-from-swallowing-all-of-ukraine.
Enforce a no fly zone starting with unoccupied areas of Ukraine, move Nato troops into Ukraine starting with unoccupied areas, airlift advanced defensive missile systems and weapons into Ukraine, and provide resources directly to the extensive Ukrainian resistance.
Military pressure on the Russian forces can then be applied incrementally as Putin attempts his campaign of annihilation against Ukrainians. Aerial and ground bombardment and starvation of Ukrainian cities can be stopped by enforcing zones that prohibit these war crimes. Enforcement will then mean Nato and Ukrainian forces being in direct conflict with Russian forces. These engagements that involve Nato can in this scenario be contained to specific areas where there is a clear moral imperative.
At the same time do the painful economic actions, and stop all oil and gas payments to Russia, embargo Russia on every possible front excluding humanitarian supplies. This is risky but the risk of drip feeding measures, and hoping against experience for the best is a much higher risk. Putin’s regime must rapidly run out of money, with secondary sanctions on the Xi Jinping regime if it attempts to support the Russian economy. This will be painful, expensive and unavoidable.
The evidence is that Putin is running a dangerous nuclear armed regime with a neo-fascist ideology; that appears to be backed by an equally dangerous Xi Jinping regime that has control over half the world’s economy. Stopping Putin Now in Ukraine is by far the least of all the risky options.