October Shocks How War And The Dollar Gets Trump Elected.
30th September 2024, Lara Keller.
We have no way to know what will happen from now to November 5th, which could influence the US elections. Given that the 2024 presidential election is on a knife edge and is about the future of US democracy, rather than just another 4 years of fudge and compromise, you would expect there to be one or more surprises, even shocks in October. There are many powerful forces inside and outside America who would welcome a Trump administration. All we can say is what some of these events will probably be, and who would likely be behind them.
Certainly Netanyahu would welcome a Trump administration, to support his war on the Arabs, without any restraint. Putin would welcome Trump’s threats to cut funding to Ukrainian resistance against the Russian invasion. A “peace deal” that froze the situation at the current front lines, would demoralize Ukraine and give Putin a chance to rearm for the next offensive. Xi Jinping has accepted that the days of taking US technology, manufacturing cheaper and selling products in bulk back to the US are over. China under Xi has morphed into a far-right ethno-nationalist autocratic major power that wants to become a superpower without the interference of the United States. A more isolationist USA under Trump would suit Xi’s vision of China’s future. These leaders know Trump plans in his second administration to permanently degrade US democracy, which will create an endless series of MAGA Republican administrations.
Netanyahu has weakened the Democrat vote by flattening Gaza in pursuit of Hamas, humiliating Hezbollah and now bombing all over Lebanon. Iran will have to respond to the annihilation of its proxies. As Iran’s backers are Russia and China, it is reasonable to expect pressure on Iran to react in a way that supports Trump. The Democrats have urged restraint on Netanyahu and would welcome a peace deal. They have also tried to negotiate with Iran to stop it acquiring nuclear weapons. If nuclear warheads could be moved from North Korea to Iran via its border with Azerbaijan and Russia, then an underground test explosion could easily be arranged in October. The seismic shock would be detected, and the Iranians announce that they had developed a nuclear warhead capable of being delivered by a ballistic missile (they have already developed). This would be a political boost for the hardline stance of Trump and Netanyahu, as an arm race to deter Iran would then follow.
Russia has collected many parts of Western made munitions since it invaded Ukraine in 2022. It would be easy for Putin to claim that long range Western missiles launched from Ukraine had hit Russian towns. The missiles would be Russian, as Putin does not mind killing a few of his own people for his vision of Russia’s future. The “black flag” 1999 Russian apartment bombings got Putin elected as president. The missile debris conveniently found would point to Ukraine. Putin runs an autocracy in Russia so the level of conspiracy would not be great. Putin would then have the excuse to implement his threat to use nuclear weapons if Russia was attacked by Western supplied long range missiles. The use of a small tactical nuclear weapon fired on Ukraine would create a major crisis in the US. Trump’s stance of making a deal with Putin would be strengthened, given this imminent threat of nuclear war.
The difference here is that, especially for the American Right, Israel has become an outpost of America, while Ukraine has not.
Taiwan is the third point of pressure for escalation. In May this year China carried out a two day exercise to blockade the island by water and air. These reversals have been getting larger year by year. Xi has repeatedly stated that the return of Taiwan to China as a key policy of his regime. A blockade would create problems for the world economy, as Taiwan is the principal manufacturer of advanced semiconductors. This would also affect the Chinese economy, however Xi has built a totalitarian state in China – as demonstrated by the Covid crisis – so is immune from public pressure. A sudden blockade of Taiwan would add more pressure on the US to respond. China, like Russia, is a nuclear superpower. Trump would then offer a deal to give China control of Taiwan’s borders, while keeping the Taiwan government nominally independent. The blockade would then be over in a couple of months, with trade returning to normal, while the US continues it’s program to move advanced computer chip manufacture back home.
If these three points of pressure on US foreign policy were to explode in October, this would create a huge problem for the Biden-Harris administration. Compounded by Trump offering to solve all three, by creating fortress Israel, forcing Ukraine to give away land to Putin for temporary peace, and by signing away Taiwan’s long term future for temporary economic stability. Such an event would involve a conspiracy among three closed connected secretive totalitarian regimes in Iran, Russia and China. This is not as unlikely as a conspiracy within open societies. To escalate on multiple fronts at the same time reduces the chance of the US using its military effectively as a deterrent.
The resulting loss of faith in the ability of the US to deal with its military commitments would have a sharp downward pressure on the over extended US economy and the desirability of the dollar. Trump’s cynicism begins to look more attractive while Harris’ optimism begins to look implausible. Trump gets elected.